More money in consumers’ pockets to fuel spending boom

For several months, economists have been wondering when the Polish consumer will finally start making larger purchases. The January report by the Central Statistical Office suggests that this moment is fast approaching. The leading consumer confidence indicator is now fluctuating at around the level it was at the beginning of March 2020.

Economists are quite unanimous that in 2024 consumption will be the driving force behind Poland’s GDP growth. After a year of “inflationary winter”, Polish consumers will be more eager to go shopping, which will be pushed by high salary increases (the minimum wage has just increased by 20%, and the public sector will receive 20-30% more) and higher social benefits.

The issue is really just the scale of the expected consumption boom. Some analysts believe that Poles, instead of resetting their portfolios to zero, will decide to rebuild the level of savings damaged by the inflation crisis of 2021-23.
That is why, for the first time in a long time, we looked with such interest at the January consumer survey prepared by the Central Statistical Office. These are the first macro data from 2024, although they probably cover only to a small extent the impact of higher wages, the results look promising.

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