The battle for the UK’s changing ‘share of stomach’
For decades, success in the UK grocery market was measured by one metric above all others: share of basket. Today, however, a more important battleground is emerging—share of stomach. While in Q1 2026 coffee and bakery chains are growing their share (+5%), grocery’s growth doesn’t quite equal inflation at +2.7%, while in the hospitality sector high end restaurants (-9%) and pubs and bars (-6.9%) have both declined sharply.
Recent market analysis suggests that UK consumers are buying less food and drink overall than they were before the pandemic – with GLP-1 drugs part of the reason. The challenge for manufacturers and retailers is therefore no longer simply winning shoppers in-store, but securing a greater share of increasingly selective eating occasions.
The implications are significant. As households continue to manage stretched budgets and changing lifestyles, consumers are making more deliberate choices about what they eat, when they eat and where they spend their food budget. Every meal, snack and drink has become a competitive opportunity.
A smaller pie means fiercer competition
Unlike previous periods of market growth, today’s food businesses are increasingly competing for a share of a market where consumption volumes are under pressure. While grocery inflation has moderated, households remain highly value-conscious after several years of rising food prices. Consumers are buying fewer items, reducing waste and becoming more selective about discretionary purchases.
This means growth is becoming harder to achieve through traditional category expansion alone. Instead, brands must persuade consumers to switch occasions, substitute products or choose them more frequently throughout the day.
The boundaries between channels are disappearing
The competition is no longer confined to supermarket shelves.
Convenience retailers, food-to-go operators, quick-service restaurants, coffee chains, meal delivery platforms and supermarkets are all competing for the same eating occasions. Breakfast purchased at a café, a supermarket meal deal, an afternoon protein snack or an evening takeaway all compete for the same consumer budget.
Hybrid working has accelerated this trend by changing when and where people eat. Rather than following predictable shopping and meal routines, consumers increasingly make spontaneous purchasing decisions throughout the day.
Winning occasions rather than categories
For food manufacturers, this represents a strategic shift.
Innovation can no longer focus solely on launching new products within existing categories. Instead, brands need to understand the role their products play across multiple consumption occasions.
Products that successfully combine convenience, value, health and indulgence are particularly well placed to capture a greater share of everyday eating. At the same time, packaging formats, portion sizes and channel-specific innovation are becoming just as important as the product itself.
A new measure of success
As overall food consumption becomes more restrained, market share alone provides only part of the picture.
The brands that outperform over the coming years will be those that increase their relevance across more eating occasions rather than simply winning more shelf space. In other words, success will increasingly be measured not by a larger share of basket, but by a larger share of stomach.
For manufacturers, retailers and foodservice operators alike, the challenge is the same: understand changing consumer habits, identify new consumption occasions and deliver products that remain relevant in an increasingly competitive food landscape.
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